Arbitration Conundrum: Benjie Molina

The deadline for teams to offer free agents salary arbitration is today, which means that some teams will have fascinating decisions to make. There is significant economic risk involved in offering a player salary arbitration, especially in a weak economy. For more information about arbitration, click here.

Scenarios:

1. Giants offer Molina arbitration and he accepts; Giants control his rights for at least 2010 and possibly longer if they come to terms on a new contract. Molina's 2010 salary will be determined by either arbitration or through negotiation. Molina earned $6 million in 2009 and would likely command somewhere between $7-$8 million in salary arbitration.

2. Giants offer Molina arbitration and he declines; the Giants will receive draft pick compensation if Molina signs elsewhere; Molina is still able to sign with the Giants as well

3. Giants refuse to offer Molina salary arbitration; the Giants can still sign Molina, but they would receive no draft pick compensation in return


VERDICT: Offer Molina salary arbitration

Here's why:

RISK

-The biggest risk involved in offering Molina salary arbitration is that he accepts and the Giants are forced to pay above market value for a declining and aging catcher.

REWARD

-The reward for the Giants in offering Molina arbitration is twofold:

1. Security blanket: If Buster Posey is unable to handle the catching duties full time next season, then Molina would be an ideal replacement. Also, if the Giants bring back Molina, they could bring Posey along slowly until they know that he is ready to handle the gig.
2. Draft Pick Compensation: Given how weak the free agent crop of catchers is this offseason, it would not surprise me to see a team sign Molina in spite of his Type A status.

The reward far exceeds the risk in this scenario and would be putting the Giants in a position of power no matter what Molina decides to do.

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The Orioles Need to Stay Patient

Can the Orioles afford to sign a big name free agent? Andy McPhail says yes:

MacPhail insists any media or fan skeptics that question whether the club is willing to offer a big contract under the right circumstances, are off base.

"We offered over 140 million dollars to Teixeria, who could have just as easily accepted it and I wish he had. To think we wouldn't go out there or that offer somehow is not genuine is absurd. It's over twice what was offered in the history of the franchise before.

"People should see now why we thought that was a legitimate get. If we could have had a switch-hitting, good defensive first baseman in the middle of a lineup that already had Roberts and Jones with Markakis, Reimold and Wieters, we would have had something special going forward for a while.

"We have to be careful about who those (big dollar) players are. And I have to be responsible. Contracts of that magnitude, unless you are an extroadinarily wealthy club, can sink a franchise. You have to be judicious when you go out there. But we were out there a year ago."

So the Orioles, under the right circumstances, are not against offering a free agent a big-dollar contract?

"We've already done it. Did it last year."

While $140 million is a pretty impressive offer, unless Mark Teixiera really (and when I say really, I mean really) wanted to play in Baltimore, there was no way the Orioles were going to land Teixeira last season. The Yankees offer blew the Orioles out of the water and nearly every other tram that was involved topped the Orioles best offer.

And there lies the problem for McPhail: how do the Orioles get big name free agents to sign big contracts that will keep them in Baltimore for the next 6-8 years? Right now, that task is not easy. In fact, it's next to impossible.

Sure the Orioles have some great young pieces (Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, etc), but right now those guys are just that: pieces. Markakis and Jones are the Orioles only proven young commodities (Brian Roberts is a stud as well), which means that the Orioles still have a long ways to go before they can be considered contenders. That's a problem because most free agents will go to the place that offers them the best deal in terms of money and winning. The only way for the Orioles to attract top free agent talent right now is to vastly overpay them, which obviously is not a sound strategy.

So what McPhail should do is sit back and wait. Let the 2010 season play out and let the Orioles young kids develop. Hopefully, if everything goes according to plan, the Orioles young kids show the baseball world how talented they are and all of a sudden, Baltimore becomes a team with lots of money to spend, great young pieces, and a desirable place for free agents to play. It can't be fun to play in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, but if Matt Wieters and the rest of the young Orioles progress as expected, then that team could be great and tons of fun to play for.

And right now, the 2010 free agent class looks pretty intriguing from the Orioles point of view: Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb, and Javier Vazquez are all set to become free agents. Is it out of the realm of possibility to think that if the Orioles put together a good show in 2010 that they can be players for a big name free agent? I don't think so.

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Two Reasons why the Tigers Should Not Trade Miguel Cabrera

With all the Miguel Cabrera trade talk swirling around, it's hard to figure out how serious these discussions are. The Tigers money situation is bad, but is it really bad enough where the Tigers have to trade their best position player? I find that hard to believe. I'm a strong believer that the Tigers need to build around Cabrera, not trade him, and here are my two main reasons why:

1. Franchise Player

-Miguel Cabrera is one of the few true franchise players in baseball right now. Cabrera is not in the same category as Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, or Alex Rodriguez; but sure is one of the ten best hitters in baseball and is a consistent force in the middle of the Tigers' lineup. If the Tigers trade Cabrera, they would have a ton of payroll and some nice prospects to show for it, but how would they replace Cabrera's production? Young players with Cabrera's hitting ability are almost impossible to come by, so it would make sense for the Tigers to hold onto their best short term and long term asset.

Yes, the incident at the end of the season looked very ugly for Cabrera and really embarrassed the Tigers, but we have to remember how young Cabrera is. Mistakes happen. The Tigers have to hope that Cabrera will grow from the incident and that a situation like that will never happen again because he is far too talented for the Tigers to move because of one mistake.

2. 2011

-Sure the Tigers payroll situation looks crappy right now, but after the season ends, the Tigers will have an enormous amount of salary coming off the books (Bonderman, Willis, Robertson, Magglio). With that in mind, there is no reason for the Tigers to make a major move now that would send Cabrera elsewhere. The salary relief that the Tigers crave will be present next winter and the Tigers will be able to build around Cabrera and hopefully extend Justin Verlander.

It'd be wise for the Tigers to hold onto Cabrera and instead move around some smaller contracts this winter that will help ease their financial burden in the short term.

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Hypothetically Speaking: The Joe Mauer Contract Extension

Now that Joe Mauer has been named the 2009 AL MVP, the focus shifts to the real drama now: will the Twins sign Mauer to a contract extension?

For those Twins fans fearful that this year's MVP award will make it more difficult to keep Joe Mauer past 2010, General Manager Bill Smith tried offering some soothing words Monday.

"Do you think if he finished second, the price was going to come down?" Smith said, cracking a smile. "So no, Joe said it perfectly: 'Today, let's celebrate the MVP Award, and we've got time to work on the other stuff.' "

To be sure, it didn't take validation from the writers to establish Mauer's soaring value. He's a two-time Gold Glove catcher, a three-time American League batting champ and now, an MVP. All this at age 26, with a four-year, $33 million contract set to expire after next season, just when the Yankees and Red Sox figure to be shopping for new catchers.

No wonder it took the national media fewer than five minutes to begin peppering Mauer with contract questions during a teleconference.

"I knew I'd probably run into a question like that," Mauer said. "I've always said it will take care of itself when it needs to."

So, let's take care of some of that contract stuff for Mr. Mauer. There is no better time than now to get the contract extension done!

Here are the goals for each side:

The Twins

1. Lock up Joe Mauer long term

2. Don't eat up too much payroll

3. Hometown discount!!!!!

The Joe Mauer Camp

1. Big money contract

2. Stay in Minnesota

So how about this deal for Mauer and the Twins?

(6 years/$120 million) with a $24 million dollar option for 2016 (7 years/$144 million)

Here is the contractual breakdown:

2010: $15 million
2011: $18 million
2012: $19 million
2013: $21 million
2014: $23 million
2015: $24 million
2016: $24 million (club option)

Why it works for the Twins:

1. Keep Mauer in Minnesota

2. Prevent him from hitting the open market

Why it works for Mauer

1. Stays in Minnesota

2. Becomes highest paid catcher in baseball

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For Joe Mauer, this deal represents his strong desire to stay in Minnesota long term and help put together a winning product there. Sure, he could have gotten a bigger and longer contract on the open market (7 years/$150 mil, 8 years/$160 mil), but given the Twins payroll flexibility, this deal would represent a massive commitment for them. It does help that the Twins are moving into a new stadium in 2010 because without the added revenue, there's virtually no way that a deal like this could have been offered. $20 million annually is not too shabby for the former frugal spending Twins.

If the Twins payroll stays around the $90 million mark, then they will be committing a large portion of their payroll to a catcher. I don't think any baseball fan out there is too fond of this idea, but quite simply, Mauer is worth it. He is one of the best players in baseball and represents so much to the Twins organization.

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Joe Mauer Will Be Very Expensive

In his latest must read column, ESPN's Buster Olney outlines what the future holds for the soon to be AL MVP Joe Mauer:

"And I'd say that my best guess is yes, the Twins will open the checkbook and spend big dollars to keep the superstar catcher, who will be told today, officially, that he is the winner of the AL Most Valuable Player Award. He and Albert Pujols are baseball's best hitters now, and in time, he might be regarded as the greatest catcher ever. He is, of course, a hometown guy for the Twins, and the last thing that the team wants, as it begins play in a publicly-funded park, is to have the imminent departure of its most marketable player hang over the franchise throughout the 2010 season.

The Twins would never give Mauer an A-Rod kind of deal, but they know that he and agent Ron Shapiro aren't going to give them a blue-light special, either (and neither will the leadership of the Players Association, which has been aggressively leaning on the agents to muster good contracts and essentially is making it clear that it will scour any deal it considers to be less than worthy.)

The team will undoubtedly offer him a record-setting deal for his position, and if he signs, there would appear to be a pretty good chance that he will make a larger percentage of his team's payroll than any player in the majors by the 2012 season. Mauer will want to take advantage of his place in the market, but at the same time, I don't think he'll try to scrape loose every nickel that is available to him (and let's face it -- in order to do that, he'd probably have to go to Boston or the Yankees."

Hold up.

I have no doubts that Mauer will become the highest paid catcher in baseball and I'm sure he will become the highest paid player on the Twins as soon as he signs his massive contract extension. I'm assuming the numbers will be staggering, well exceeding 6 years and well north of $100 million dollars. I don't care how good Joe Mauer is; that's some serious cash for a catcher.

But I have my doubts that Joe Mauer will make a larger percentage of his team's payroll than any player in the majors by the 2012 season. I'm not saying that Mauer won't get handsomely paid because we all know that he will. But what I am saying is that there are a number of reasons why Mauer will narrowly miss out on the title.

Here's why:

1. The Twins payroll is set to increase.

-With the new building opening in 2010, the Twins payroll is expected to jump from about $70 million to $90 million. A recent estimate puts the Twins 2010 payroll at $93 million. If the Twins maintained their $70 million dollar payroll, then I'm sure that Mauer would have been the "highest percentage" if he signed with Minnesota considering that he's a virtual lock to make roughly $20 million annually.

2. Felix Hernandez

-King Felix is set to become a free agent after 2011 and there's a chance, albeit an outside chance, that he could become the highest paid pitcher in baseball and become the "highest percentage" player.

3. Albert Pujols

-Now we're talking. Phat Albert is set to become a free agent after the 2011 season and I'm sure the Cardinals will do everything in their power to lock him up long term. However, if Pujols hits the market, who knows how much money he could get? $25 million? $30 million? No matter, Pujols is sure to become one of the highest paid players in baseball whenever he signs his next deal. If Pujols signs with the Cardinals, who have roughly $80-$95 million to spend, then there's no reason to think that Pujols annual salary won't take up 25-33% of the team's total payroll.

4. Prince, Carl Crawford, etc.

-If Prince Fielder re-signs with the Brewers he could come close to being the "highest percentage"

-If Carl Crawford signs a extension with the Rays similar to this one, then he could come close to being the "highest percentage" in 2012.

-If the Rangers ownership situation completely blows up and they are forced to cut payroll, then Michael Young could the choice.

-If the Blue Jays cut costs in 2012, then Vernon Wells could be the answer.

-And if the Marlins' payroll fails to increase, then Hanley Ramirez could very well become the "highest percentage" player in 2012.

Well see how close Mauer comes to the title, but as you can see, the competition will be stiff. As you can see here, there are numerous options and it is simply too early to tell how the entire market will play out by 2012.

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Hypothetically Speaking: The Carl Crawford Contract Extension

Can the Rays keep Carl Crawford long term? Maybe. A discussion could be looming:

TRADE WINDS: According to an industry source, the Rangers and White Sox have shown interest in CF B.J. Upton, and the Mets and Braves have inquired about All-Star LF Carl Crawford. The Rays have said they're interested in discussing a long-term deal with Crawford, who is eligible to be a free agent after the 2010 season.

Carl Crawford wants to be a Ray long term. The Rays want to sign Carl Crawford long term. So what's the problem here?

Money.

The Rays have one of the smallest payrolls in baseball and Crawford, 28, is one of the best left fielders in baseball and is sure to command a huge salary on the free agent market next winter.

But like I said before, the good news is that both sides seem interested in getting a deal done. Can a deal actually happen? That's another story.

Let's take a look at the goals for each side:

The Rays

1. Lock up Carl Crawford long term

2. Don't eat up too much payroll

3. Discount...please?

The Carl Crawford Camp

1. Big money contract

2. Attempt to maximize Crawford's value in Tampa

3. Increased salary in 2010

4. Stay in Tampa (if that's really what he wants)


So how about this deal for Crawford and the Rays?

(3 years/$45 million)

Here is the contractual breakdown:

2010: $13 million
2011: $14 million
2012: $18 million

Why it works for the Rays:

1. Buyout two free agent years

2. Keep Crawford in Tampa

3. Prevent him from hitting the open market

4. Affordable contract and possible trade chip in the future

Why it works for Crawford

1. Stays in Tampa

2. Makes more money in 2010

3. Crawford can be a free agent when he is 30 years old

4. Guaranteed money

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I dunno about this one. I imagine that this is what it will take for the Rays to sign Crawford, but can anyone actually see this type of deal happening? Are the Rays really ready to commit so much of their payroll to one guy? Assuming they have a $60 million dollar payroll, signing Crawford to this extension would take up at least 25% of the total payroll every year. Not good. But then again, the Rays are set to lose Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell and Dan Wheeler next winter so maybe the Rays will actually have some funds to play with.

The Rays would be able to hold onto one of their most valuable assets for a few seasons and hope to the baseball Gods that they get a new stadium, which means increased revenue in the future, which means a higher payroll for the Rays.

One can dream, right?

Do the Rays have any chance to sign Crawford to a long term deal this winter?

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Did the Marlins Make a Mistake with Josh Johnson?

A few weeks back, we suggested a 4 year/$40 million dollar extension for Josh Johnson. However, it looks like talks of a contract extension are dead:

There will be no long-term contract for pitcher Josh Johnson with the Florida Marlins this winter, his agent said Friday.

Agent Matt Sosnick told ESPN.com that negotiations between the Marlins and Johnson have reached an "impasse," and Johnson expects to play under a one-year deal in 2010. Johnson will be eligible for free agency after the 2011 season, and a failure to reach agreement on a multiyear contract would probably force the Marlins to explore a trade before then.

"Based on our conversations, there's no chance of doing a long-term deal with the Marlins," Sosnick said. "We made it clear that it was going to be this year or it wasn't going to happen. It was now or never. And the Marlins agreed."

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"Josh made it clear that his first choice was to sign a deal and stay with the Marlins," Sosnick said. "He loves the Marlins and he loves Florida. We were willing to give the Marlins what we thought was a significant break, but they just weren't comfortable going to the fourth year."

Hmmmmm, interesting call. Why on earth would the Marlins not give Johnson a fourth year? Here are my top three reasons why:

1. Injury risk

-Johnson is only a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery so in theory, there is risk in giving him a long term deal.

2. Being cheap

-The Marlins are a notoriously frugal franchise and they rarely sign their homegrown talent to long term contracts.

3. Philosophy

-I honestly cannot remember the last time the Marlins signed a pitcher to a long term deal.

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No matter what the reason is, the Marlins come off looking awfully cheap here. With a new stadium set to open in the near future, most people assumed that the Marlins would be more aggressive with signing players and spending. No one expected them to ever spend like the Yankees, but anything is an improvement over a $30 million dollar payroll.

This has to be a hard pill for Marlins fans to swallow. Johnson is only 25 years old and could have been under team control at a reasonable price for the next four years, instead of two years. Hell, the opportunity was perfect for the Marlins. Johnson has the ability to be one of the top 10 pitchers in all of baseball, but he was willing to take a contract extension now because:

a. he loved Florida
b. he pitched only 1 full season after Tommy John surgery
c. he was under team control for the next two seasons and would have accepted buying out two free agent years in return for a pay raise in 2010 and 2011.

Now the question turns to this: will the Marlins look to trade Johnson this winter? Considering how high Johnson's value is combined with the limited number of impact free agent starting pitchers on the market, I would say that now is the optimal time to trade Johnson. The team that trades for him will control his rights for two full seasons, which should bring back a large package for the Marlins.

Did the Marlins make a mistake here? Should they have guaranteed Johnson a fourth year?

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