Darren Oliver's Impact

Talk about coming full circle: 17 years after Darren Oliver began his career with the Texas Rangers, it looks as though Oliver will be returning to the Rangers.

The Texas Rangers are nearing completion of a one-year deal to add LHP Darren Oliver to the bullpen, two sources said Sunday night.

Oliver, 39, has been used as a reliever for the last four years and has found significant success in that role. Over the last two seasons with the Los Angeles Angels, he is 12-2 with a 2.79 ERA. He has held left-handed hitters to a .247 batting average with a .286 on-base percentage during that time.

Oliver still lives in the area and his agents met with the Rangers during the winter meeting. At the time, Oliver was seeking at least the same salary as he made with the Angels in 2009 ($3.65 million). The Rangers were believed to be in the $3 million range, but were waiting on a deal for Mike Lowell to be completed.

While $3 million in this marketplace might be a tad bit steep for Oliver given how many options are out there, I love this move from the Rangers' perspective. The Rangers add a quality left handed reliever to their improving bullpen and as we saw last season with the Rangers, if the Rangers' pitching staff can achieve mediocrity, then the Rangers have a very good chance at winning lots of baseball games. Darren Oliver has proven to be one of the best left handed set up men in baseball over the last three seasons with the Angels and bringing him to Texas is a coup for GM Jon Daniels.

In addition, the future impact of this deal is next to nothing for the Rangers. By signing Oliver to a one year contract, the Rangers mitigate the risk involved with signing a 39 year old pitcher. It's also important to note that the Rangers did not have to surrender a draft pick to sign Oliver, even though he was a type A free agent, because the Angels did not offer him arbitration.

But the real benefit of adding Darren Oliver is that it could potentially move CJ Wilson into the starting rotation. The Rangers were skeptical of moving Wilson out of the bullpen because he was so valuable as their primary left handed set up man, but now with Oliver on board, the Rangers have more flexibility to give Wilson a chance to start.

Either way this move is a win-win for the Rangers. If Wilson stays in the bullpen, then the Rangers will have a deep and reliable bullpen to fall back on, but if Wilson moves into the starting rotation, then the Rangers rotation could improve even more.

Does the Coco Crisp Signing Make Sense?

Late Saturday night, the Athletics and Coco Crisp came to terms on a one year pact worth $4.5-$5 million dollars. The deal set off some heated discussion in the blogosphere, namely, what in the world is Billy Beane doing? For one, ESPN's Rob Neyer is not a fan of the signing:

With that out of the way ... I don't get it. Unless someone is traded, this makes no sense at all for the A's. Sweeney has to play, because he's an outstanding outfielder and a decent enough hitter who's young enough to get better. Rajai Davis isn't as young, and it's far from obvious that he'll ever hit as well again as he did in 2009. But he does seem to be an excellent defensive center fielder. And Scott Hairston is decent enough to play, to say nothing of giant prospect Michael Taylor, just acquired from the Blue Jays.

The logical reason why Beane would choose to invest his limited resources in an outfielder when he already has a number of good outfield options centers around defense. As ESPN's Buster Olney noted yesterday, the Athletics seem to focusing their attention around pitching and defense. And with so many young pitchers on staff, it would make sense for Beane to surround them with the best outfield defense possible.

And now with Crisp on board, the Athletics outfield defense should be one of the best in baseball. Between Coco Crisp (19.6 UZR in 2009), Rajai Davis (16.2 UZR in 2009), and Ryan Sweeney (27.6 UZR in 2009), the Athletics outfield defense will be loaded with speed and should cover tons of ground.

The problem that I have with this deal is purely based on economics. Beane has limited resources to begin with and even though $5 million for Crisp might be a good deal if he's healthy, is that really a good deal for the A's? Assuming that the Athletics payroll remains in the $50-$60 million dollar range for 2010, was it really smart for Beane to commit 8%-10% of their payroll to a guy who likely will not help the A's make it to the playoffs and will probably only be around for one season. And as Neyer mentioned in his piece, the A's already have Scott Hairston, who could play a sufficient left field for the A's in 2010 for a few million dollars less than Crisp. So ask yourself this, was Coco Crisp really necessary for the rebuilding Athletics?

And how's this for a strange nugget: if Coco Crisp signs with the Athletics, he will become their 3rd highest paid player.

The Market for Adrian Beltre Takes Another Hit

While Scott Boras patiently waits for some team to offer Adrian Beltre a four year deal worth around $10 million annually, the market for Beltre is simply not developing at this point. And to make matters worse, the Red Sox, who were one of the few teams interested in Beltre that could come close to giving him the contract he wanted, might not be in the market for a third baseman anymore. The reason? The Mike Lowell to Texas trade is was cancelled yesterday:

The trade sending Mike Lowell to Texas has been quashed, a baseball source said Saturday night, after a physical exam by the Rangers revealed that the third baseman requires surgery on his right thumb, which he injured on the last weekend of the 2009 season.

A Red Sox source confirmed that Lowell will require surgery to repair the radial collateral ligament in his right thumb, which the source termed as "minor" surgery that will take six to eight weeks to heal. Lowell, who is expected to undergo the surgery after Christmas, should be ready by the first week or two of spring training, the source said.

With Lowell now back in the fold for the Red Sox, it's hard to envision a scenario where the Red Sox can afford to take on Beltre. At this point, Lowell is virtually untradeable thanks to his thumb injury and the only way the Red Sox will be able to get him off their roster would be to flat out release him, which does not make too much sense.

So with the Red Sox off the board, what's next for Beltre? Even though Beltre was considered to be one of the top free agent third basemen, there are only two teams right now that have definite interest in his services: the Mariners and the Giants. However, both of those teams can be patient with Beltre because there are so many corner infielders available on the free agent market. If Beltre continues to price himself too highly, then the Giants and Mariners will simply move on and go after the some of the lower level free agents (DeRosa, Branyan, LaRoche, etc.).

At this point, Beltre has three options:

1. Continue to push for a 4 year/$40 million dollar deal
2. Ask for a multi year contract with less years and dollars than option 1
3. Sign a one year contract

If I was Beltre's agent (Scott Boras), I'd have to seriously think about pursuing a one year contract. Teams are hesitant to give Beltre the deal he wants for numerous reasons (injuries, lack of money, too much competition), but I think teams would love to sign Beltre to a one year deal worth $8 million or so. Sure it's less than he would have gotten if he had accepted the Mariners' arbitration offer, but there is a lot of upside in a one year deal for Beltre:

1. The 2010 free agent class of third basemen looks weak (outside of Jorge Cantu)
2. Beltre will be only 31 years old
3. If he has a big 2010 season, then he could cash in on a lucrative multi year contract next winter

Sure there are risks involved in signing a one year deal, but it might be Beltre's best chance of maximizing his earning potential instead of settling for something like a 3 year/$21 million dollar contract this winter.

Risk/Reward of Scott Rolen's Restructured Deal

You see plenty of moves like this in football, but contract restructuring is not nearly as common in baseball. But yesterday, the Reds and Scott Rolen agreed to a restructured deal that will keep him in Cincinnati for the next three seasons:

The Cincinnati Reds and Scott Rolen have agreed to restructure the third baseman's contract to give the club more payroll flexibility for next season, ESPN.com has learned.

Rolen had been scheduled to make $11 million in 2010, the final season of the eight-year, $90 million extension he signed after being traded by the Phillies to the Cardinals in 2002.

Instead, under the terms of the new contract, Rolen will earn $6 million in 2010, plus a $5 million signing bonus that the sides agreed would be deferred without interest, according to a source who has seen the details of the agreement.

The club, in return, extended Rolen's contract two years, through 2012. He will earn $6.5 million in each of those two seasons.

On the surface, this looks like a wise deal for both the Reds and Scott Rolen. The Reds were looking to acquire payroll flexibility this winter and by restructuring Rolen's deal, the Reds will save $5 million dollars in 2010. In addition, because of these savings, perhaps the Reds don't have to aggressively shop guys like Harang and Arroyo solely for payroll relief. Hopefully, the Reds will hold onto their high priced players at least through the first few months of the season to give this team a chance to show it can win in 2010.

As for Rolen, he guarantees himself another two years and $12 million dollars simply by restructuring his deal, which could be a smart move given how players tend to decline once they reach his age (35 in April). Even if Rolen had a big season for the Reds in 2010, I don't think he would have gotten significantly more than 2 years/$12.5 million so it's not like he's leaving a boatload of money on the table here.

But on the field, this move has upside for the Reds. While Rolen is not the potent hitter he was at the beginning of his career, he can still hit some home runs, lots of doubles, and gets on base. But most importantly for the Reds, Rolen is still one of the best defensive third basemen around and even though his UZR is on the decline, Rolen still produced a fantastic 7.6 last season and 8.5 the year prior.

At the same time, was it smart for the Reds to commit to Rolen through 2012 instead of just letting his contract expire at the end of the year? While the deal will help the Reds in the short term, the long term implications of this deal make it a somewhat of a risk. As I mentioned before, Rolen is an aging player with declining numbers as a hitter and a fielder, so one has to wonder if that decline will continue and if Rolen will become nothing more than an average third baseman. In addition, Rolen does have a rather lengthy injury history and he has not played in more than 130 games in any season since 2006. That point has to be concerning for the Reds' front office.

It will be interesting to see how (and if) the Reds choose to spend the money the saved from the Rolen restructuring. One would have to think that the Reds would become more active on the free agent market if the Rolen deal is truly going to benefit them in the present. I have a hard time thinking that in 2012 we'll think that this deal was fantastic, but in the short term, it accomplished an important goal for the Reds and now gives them the opportunity (albeit a small one) to spend money on some players.

Thinking Out Loud: Orlando Hudson to the Cubs?

A few days ago, I talked about the limited interest Orlando Hudson was receiving thus far on the free agent market (which included some great comments about possible landing spots for Hudson!). That same day, the Cubs traded away Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva, in a swap of horrible contracts that frees up some money for the Cubs to spend. The Mariners threw in $9 million dollars in the deal, and around $5 million of that will be applied this season, which means the Cubs now have some limited payroll flexibility to work with.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Cubs are now set to go after Marlon Byrd to replace Bradley in the outfield and potentially pursue a relief pitcher with closing experience (Matt Capps?) out of the bullpen. The Cubs are in the market for a centerfielder and a relief pitcher (at least) and Byrd is the best centerfielder left on the market and there are plenty of relief options out there for the Cubs to explore.

But, should the Cubs, now armed with their new found savings, opt against the conventional wisdom and try to sign Orlando Hudson instead of Byrd to fill their need at second base? As of right now, the Cubs have Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker as their primary options at second, which is not a duo that Cubs fans should be too optimistic about. In the best case scenario, both of those guys should be platoon/bench players that can give the Cubs the depth they crave.

If the Cubs could sign Hudson to a short term deal at a team friendly price, then I think Hudson can be a bigger asset to the Cubs given his offensive ability, defensive ability (overrated to a certain degree), and strong leadership characteristics. Sure Marlon Byrd might give the Cubs a power hitting center fielder, but he will be awfully expensive and should require a multi year contract. If the Cubs choose against signing Byrd, they could go after a cheaper option on the free agent/trade market to fill their need in the outfield that will not require the money/years of Marlon Byrd.

Should the Cubs go after Orlando Hudson? Discuss and debate in the comments section.

Analysis of the Milton Bradley-Carlos Silva Trade

And with that, the Chicago Cubs just got less crazy and the Seattle Mariners have found a middle of the order hitter

Cubs acquire: Carlos Silva, $9 million

Mariners acquire: Milton Bradley

************* **************

Cubs Perspective

• Finally get rid of Milton Bradley!
• Very little upside on return
• Carlos Silva stinks
• Save $9 million!
  
• Where does he fit on the Cubs roster?

Conclusion: It has come to this. The Cubs were forced to take on one of the worst contracts in baseball just to get Milton Bradley off their hands. On one hand they should be celebrating that Milton is gone and they got some savings in return, but Carlos Silva has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the past two years. I guess the Cubs will give him a look and if they don't like what they see, they will simply release him and eat the remaining cost. The Cubs can now use the Bradley savings to spend on a center fielder and hope that this deal is addition by subtraction at its finest. n

Mariners Perspective:

• Acquire a potential impact bat
• No more Carlos Silva!
  
• Bradley can DH or play left field
• High risk because of his terrible attitude
• Can they keep Milton Bradley sane?
  
• In addition to taking on Bradley's contract, the Mariners also sent the Cubs $9 million
  
• In the end, the Mariners take on an additional $5 million over the next two seasons

Conclusion: There's no doubt that this move is a risk for the Mariners, but GM Jack Zduriencik must believe that Bradley can give them the middle of the order production they need at very little cost. Taking on $5 million over the next two seasons is not much for the Mariners and Carlos Silva was dead weight on the Mariners anyway. The real question remains if the Mariners can keep Bradley sane, because if they can, then this deal has lots of upside for them and the potential to be a steal.

What Does the Nick Johnson Contract Mean for Adam LaRoche?

Coming into the offseason, the two top free agent first basemen on the market were Adam LaRoche and Nick Johnson. Besides the fact that they are both left handed first basemen, LaRoche and Johnson have little in common as far as their careers and playing styles are concerned. LaRoche is a steady power hitter, who has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past five seasons and has played in at least 135 games in every season since 2005. Johnson, on the other hand, is strongly regarded for his ability to get on base instead of his power and is notorious for always being injured.

Not surprisingly, when the offseason started, LaRoche and Johnson had completely different expectations of their next contract should look like. LaRoche was in the market (reportedly) for a 3 year/$31.5 million dollar deal while Johnson was simply looking for a two year deal even though many teams highly regard him.

However, late last night, the Yankees inched closer to signing Johnson to a one year deal worth $5.5 million dollars. This deal would seem to suggest that even though Johnson had demand for his services, that teams were reluctant to give him more than a one year deal, presumably because of his injury history. There is always the chance that Johnson took less to play for the Yankees, but one has to wonder what Johnson's contract will do to LaRoche's contractual expectations.
On one hand, LaRoche seems to be in a decent position on the free agent market:

• The Giants are known to be very interested in his services
• The Mariners need a first baseman,
  
• The Braves should be looking to re-sign LaRoche as well.
  

So like Johnson, it appears as though demand is quite high for his services.

But on the other hand, there are so many options out there that LaRoche needs to be careful not to price himself too high.

• If the Giants are not satisfied with what LaRoche is asking for, then they can move on and make a strong run at Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, or Dan Uggla.
  
• If the Mariners aren't willing to give LaRoche the money he is looking for, then they could simply re-sign Russell Branyan to play first base
• If the Braves cannot afford LaRoche, then they can opt for a low cost signing (Huff, Delgado, Blalock, Glaus), play Martin Prado at first, or even give Mitch Jones a chance!

The high number of options on the market makes it difficult for LaRoche to command a contract that guarantees him three years at an average annual salary of more than $7 million annually. If Johnson could only get $5.5 million, then why would any team pay LaRoche $9 million, especially when there are so many options out there?

Nick Johnson's deal should signal to LaRoche that he needs to expect less, hope for more, and if he can, sign quickly. With so many options out there, it's only a matter of time before money becomes scarce and the number of teams looking to sign first basemen starts to dwindle.