Phillies Bullpen Options

Now that the Phillies have added Roy Halladay, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has turned his attention to shoring up their shaky bullpen. With Chan Ho Park and Scott Eyre set to leave Philadelphia, Amaro has identified his two main targets: Fernando Rodney and Mike MacDougal. Both guys have experience closing, which is vital for the Phillies given how bad Brad Lidge performed last season.

The going rate for Rodney at this point seems to be somewhere in the 2 years/$12 million dollar range, which seems rather excessive when you consider that Mike Gonzalez, who is a superior pitcher, landed the exact same deal. And even though Rodney has great stuff and was a decent closer for the Phillies this season, is he a guy that the Phillies should feel confident calling on in a big spot? Lemme put it to you this way, between Rodney and Brad Lidge, it could be a roller coaster season for the Phillies.

As for MacDougal, he had a nice couple months with the Nationals last season, but when it comes down to it, MacDougal is just a guy with great stuff and very poor control. There's a reason why the Nationals non-tendered him: even though MacDougal put together a nice season as the Nationals' closer, his control makes him too much of a risk for the Nationals to pay him $3 million or so that he would have earned via arbitration. MacDougal should be a cheap option on the free agent market, but that doesn't necessarily make him a good option for the Phillies given his control issues.

Before the Phillies make a final choice on MacDougal or Rodney, I'd suggest that they take a look into Jose Valverde. As I wrote a few days back, the market for Valverde stinks and it's highly doubtful that he will come close to the 3 year/$30 million dollar contract he wanted this winter. Valverde is the best closer on the market, but because of his type A status, teams a shying away from offering him a contract.

That's where the Phillis come in. With $118 million in payroll commitments already for 2010, the Phillies have roughly $22 million left to spend ($140 million dollar payroll), but a majority of that will be spent on arbitration raises. If I'm Ruben Amaro, I would offer Valverde something like a one year deal worth $7.5 million dollars and a decent level of incentives. Because the Phillies would have to surrender their first round pick to sign Valverde, I doubt they would be willing to pay more than that for a relief pitcher, no matter how good he may be. Valverde would give the Phillies a potentially dominant closer should Brad Lidge fail to return to his 2008 form and has far more upside than either Rodney or MacDougal.

If Valverde declines the offer, which I would expect, then Amaro can move on to options B and C. But there are plenty of reasons for Valverde to accept the deal. He would be placed in a great situation to play on a winning team where he might be able to close on a regular basis. And let's face it, teams aren't exactly clamoring to sign him, no matter how good of a closer he may be.

And the Phillies would be significantly upgrading their bullpen for 2010, which in my opinion is worth their first round pick given how minimal the commitment would be to Valverde. If Valverde joins the Phillies, then they would have to be the favorites in the National League.

Will the Yankees Go After Aroldis Chapman?

Lost in the shuffle of the Yankees tremendous offseason has been their relative inactivity on the Aroldis Chapman front. At the beginning of the offseason, the Yankees were heavily linked to the Cuban left hander because of their vast financial resources and experience signing international prospects. But now that the Yankees have acquired Curtis Granderson, Javier Vazquez, and Nick Johnson already (and pushed their 2010 payroll to $204 million in the process!), do they have enough resources remaining to make a push for Chapman? Maybe not, if you believe Yankees GM Brian Cashman:

“I will continue to look at any remaining piece,” Cashman said during today’s conference call. “But it won’t be a big piece. Any speculation about some high-end player who has big ability and dollars attached on a large scale would be inappropriate.”

Now whether or not Chapman would be considered a "big piece" by Yankees brass is certainly up for debate, but that doesn't sound like a guy, who is too willing to commit $20-$30 million over five seasons to a relative unknown.

Then again, if the Yankees truly believe that Chapman has the makings of an ace in the majors, then I'm sure they could find room in their budget to sign him. Paying Chapman $5-$6 million dollars annually might be a lot for most teams, but for the Yankees, that's chump change as long as there is tremendous upside in the deal and the pitcher's name is not Kei Igawa. Remember that the Yankees view Chapman as a piece in 2011 at the earliest, so if they do sign him, the implications of the contract would primarily be in the long term.

And finally, remember that the Yankees could jump right into the Chapman sweepstakes if they see the Red Sox make a strong push. Baseball's cold war knows no financial limits and if the Yankees can do anything to improve their club in the future while damaging the Red Sox in the process, then I'm sure that's a move Cashman would be eager to make.

Are the Mets and Joel Pineiro a Match?

The Mets badly need a starting pitcher. Joel Pineiro is the best starter left on the free agent market. So shouldn't Pineiro to the Mets be a logical fit? Maybe not:

With Marquis, John Lackey and Randy Wolf now unavailable, the Mets could be down to the last of the preferred free-agent starting pitchers -- Joel Pineiro. But there has been no indication that they have any great interest in him. The $29.75 million contract Wolf signed with the Brewers appeared to spook the Mets. They hadn't expected Wolf to command such a figure and were prompted to look past the other starters they considered mid-range and less accomplished than Lackey. They did develop a belated interest in Lackey based in part of Wolf's deal, though not one comparable to the Red Sox's interest -- $85 million.

Like so many free agents this winter, what Pineiro expected to receive on the market likely will not come close to the deal he actually signs. Why? Because there are so few teams out there looking to spend big money on a starting pitcher and there are even fewer teams out there with money to spend. The Mets are one of the few teams on the market left that have a definite need for a starting pitcher and have money to spend as well.

If Pineiro is going to come close to Randy Wolf money, then he's going to need to have a number of teams interested in his services. But right now, the market for Pineiro simply is not there. Outside of the Mets, what other teams would have interest in Pineiro at $7-$10 million annually?

• Yankees: Nope. Not after the Vazquez trade
• Red Sox: Nope. Not after the Lackey signing
• Cubs: Doubtful. Do they have the money to spend?
• Dodgers: Doubtful. Do they have the money to spend?
  
• Nationals: Doubtful, especially after committing $15 million to Jason Marquis
• Orioles: Doubtful given their payroll and recent acquisition of Kevin Millwood
• Mariners: Probably not given their recent acquisition of Cliff Lee
• Cardinals: Unlikely at this point because they signed Brad Penny
  

Besides the Mets, the only other team that sticks out in my mind is the Angels. After losing John Lackey, the Angels need a front line starting pitcher and if they cannot acquire one on the trade market, then they might look to Pineiro to fill the void.

The best case scenario for Pineiro and his agent is if the Mets and Angels both become desperate for a front line starting pitcher and decide to go hard after Pineiro.

But is that scenario likely? I doubt it. Even though there is tremendous pressure on the Mets to get a deal done with any top free agent, their lack of interest in Pineiro so far suggests that while they need a starting pitcher, maybe Pineiro is not the guy they want to go after strongly. As for the Angels, they have less money to spend than the Mets do and they are making a strong run at Fernando Rodney. In addition, the Angels have a very good fallback option should Pineiro sign elsewhere-Matt Palmer. Under no circumstances should the Angels panic after Lackey's loss given their wealth of resources, prospects, and options.

If both the Mets and Angels remain patient and refuse to panic, than the price tag for Pineiro will inevitably drop. I doubt he'll achieve the salary of Randy Wolf, but he should earn more than Jason Marquis. Given how the market has played out, Pineiro at 3 years/$24 million seems about right.

At that price, I would expect the Mets to be very much interested in Pineiro.

Thinking Out Loud: The Nationals, $22 Million, and Aroldis Chapman

As the great Buster Olney pointed out this morning, the Nationals have now spent $22 million dollars this winter on the following free agents:

• Jason Marquis (2 years/$15 million)
  

• Ivan Rodriguez (2 years/$6 million)
  

• Scott Olson (1 year/$1 million)
  

With that figure in mind, who would you rather have: those three players (Marquis, Rodriguez, Olson) or Aroldis Chapman, should he command the expected total of $15-$20 million dollars to sign?

If Chapman would sign for somewhere in the $15-$20 million dollar range, I'd have to choose him over those three based on Chapman's high upside and potential.

Your thoughts?

Analysis of the Javier Vazquez Trade

By acquiring Javier Vazquez, the Yankees are addressing one of their more pressing needs this winter: more starting pitching. And by acquiring Vazquez, they sure picked up a good one. Vazquez is coming off the best season of his career with the Braves and was one of the top starting pitchers in the National League last season. On paper, the Yankees now have a starting rotation comparable to that of the Red Sox.

But you have to wonder how Vazquez will fare with the Yankees. Vazquez was a bust for the Yankees back in 2004 and now he will be moving out of the cozy NL East and into the potent AL East. In many ways, it's like moving from junior varsity to varsity. And in that respect, I would expect Vazquez's numbers to go up from last season.

Make no mistake about it though, if Vazquez can give the Yankees 200 IP with 190+ K's, and a 3.75 ERA, then there is no reason why he won't be able to win 15+ games with the Yankees the way this team is constructed.

While this trade does not give the Braves the power bat they were looking for, it does free them of the $11 million owed to Vazquez this season and allows them to become players on the free agent market should they choose too. It remains to be seen if they will be able to pursue Holliday or Bay, but given how poorly both of their markets have developed, the Braves would seem to have a good chance to land either player, especially Bay. At the very least, the Braves should have the funds to re-sign Adam LaRoche or go after Dan Uggla.

And it's important to note that the Braves did not just get rid of Vazquez's contract, but they also got more in return that I thought. Melky Cabrera should be a very useful fourth outfielder/platoon partner for the Braves who can hit for some power and play solid defense. In addition, Cabrera is not projected to be a free agent until after the 2012 season, which is yet another plus for the Braves. Also, Mike Dunn could be a realistic option for the Braves bullpen this season and lemme tell you this, I watched Aroyds Vizcaino pitch several times for the Staten Island Yankees last season, and that dude has phenomenal stuff. Sure he is still a ways away from the majors, but the raw talent is certainly there.

The Benefit of Signing Jason Marquis

The market for starting pitchers is beginning to take shape as Jason Marquis and the Washington Nationals agreed to a 2 year/$15 million dollar contract.

Free-agent pitcher Jason Marquis has agreed to a two-year, $15 million contract with the Washington Nationals, sources confirmed to ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney on Monday.

The deal is pending a physical.

The Nationals issued a "media alert," saying that they would hold a news conference at their stadium on Tuesday to announce a free-agent signing. The team did not identify the player in the release.

The 31-year-old Marquis is a right-hander who went 15-13 with a 4.04 ERA and 115 strikeouts in 216 innings for the Colorado Rockies in 2009. He made the NL All-Star team last season, thanks to an 11-6 record and 3.65 ERA at that point. But Marquis fizzled down the stretch and wasn't part of the Rockies' postseason starting rotation.

Now, I'll be honest with you: I'm torn on this deal. I don't think it's a bad contract for the Nationals economically and a two year deal seems to be about right for both sides. The Nationals needed to add a proven starter to the mix, who could eat a boatload of innings, take some pressure off the bullpen, provide some leadership, and give the rebuilding Nationals a legitimate chance to win every time he takes the ball. There's no doubt Marquis fits the bill.

While we question this deal for the Nationals, we have to take into account just how difficult it has been for the Nationals to lure free agents to DC in previous seasons. Sure the Nationals signed Dunn and Beimel last season, but that was after those two guys were basically shunned by the rest of the baseball world. The only way the Nationals are going to get better and become relevant in Washington DC is if they add talented players to the mix that allows them to compete and offer hope for the future. Even though Jason Marquis is no ace, he is a substantial upgrade over some of the Nationals other options.

But on the other side, where's the upside for the Nationals, here? At best, Marquis is a middle of the rotation starter, who was great during stretches last season, but struggled mightily towards the end of the season. In addition, committing $15 million to Marquis over two years would seem to be a logical move for a team that is looking to compete and is aiming for a playoff birth, but realistically, the Nationals are years away from contending. By the time Marquis' contract runs out, the Nationals should be in a much better position to compete for a playoff spot. I would have loved to see the Nationals make a strong push at a long term option like Aroldis Chapman, who has far more upside than Marquis and might be an ace long term.

To me, this deal will be a success for the Nationals if Marquis can provide some stability and consistency to the Nationals starting rotation. Wins and losses will not be the ultimate judge of this deal, but if the Nationals continue to lose 100+ games a year, then it will be difficult to call this deal a success no matter how good Marquis is.

Jose Valverde: This Winter's Orlando Hudson?

Am I alone in thinking that Jose Valverde, considered to be one of the best closers on the open market, might wind up signing a contract for less than what Brandon Lyon recieved? We'll see. But for now, Ken Rosenthal outlines the problems facing Valverde's free agency:

No, Valverde’s problem is that he is a Type A free agent who rejected his team’s offer of salary arbitration. His decision, in part, was fueled by emotion; Valverde, one friend said, was upset with the Astros for declining to sign him long-term.

Thus, he made a personal decision, if not -- perhaps -- the best business move.

Valverde, a right-hander coming off an $8 million salary, would have shot past $10 million in arbitration, though on a non-guaranteed, one-year deal. Now, any team that signs him faces an additional cost -- the loss of a high draft pick to the Astros.

Teams are interested. They have to be interested. The question is at what price.

The non-existent market for Jose Valverde is the under reported story of the offseason. Here's a guy, who came into the winter with sky high expectations after a great 2009 season, but so far in free agency, the interest in Valverde has been reduced to crickets and tumbleweeds.

And I can't say that I blame teams for this. As Rosenthal noted, Valverde made a terrible decision to reject the Astros' arbitration offer and there are simply no teams on the market this winter that are prepared to give Valverde the contract with both the dollars and years he's looking for.

It will be fascinating to see what happens with Valverde in the coming weeks. I'm sure his price tag is set to drop well into bargain basement territory, but Valverde will be further hindered by baseball's version of the scarlet letter: type A status. The limited number of teams interested in closers combined with the overall reluctance to part with draft picks makes Valverde's situation a nightmare.

The most logical scenario for Valverde would have been for a team with a pick in the top 16 of the MLB draft to sign him because their first round pick is protected. Any team inside the top 16 would only have to surrender their second round pick to the Astros. However, it's doubtful that any of the teams inside the top 16 have the cash or the desire to sign Valverde. The Nationals and Pirates need closers, but does anyone honestly think either of those two teams will spend on a top flight closer? Neither did I.

So it's pretty obvious to me that Valverde will wind up with a team in the bottom half of the draft, which means they will have to surrender a first round pick. This situation is similar to what Orlando Hudson went through last year with the Dodgers, when Hudson settled on a one year deal with a low base ($4 mil) and plenty of incentives because so many teams shied away from his type A status. Sure the Dodgers had to surrender their first round pick, but in return, they got Hudson at a very cheap price and minimal commitment.

And unfortunately for Valverde, that's exactly the kind of deal I can see him taking. A team like the Phillies or Angels would be perfect for Valverde because they could offer the chance to close if need be and Valverde would be put in a winning situation that could give him plenty of exposure and attention. It remains to be seen if either of those two teams has the money to spend on Valverde, but given their playoff expectations this season, it might make sense to add another experienced closer to the mix at a low cost.