The Race for Bryce Harper, Week 1

Over the next few weeks, there will be a very important race going on that has nothing to do with the playoffs or the pennant race. Quite the contrary, actually. The worst teams in baseball will be competing to land teenage phenom Bryce Harper, who Sports illustrated dubbed as "The Chosen One" and is one of the most talented players in decades. Harper, who is a catcher, has the potential to be a franchise changer and is almost guaranteed at this point to be the #1 pick in 2010.

So the race is on. Whatever team finishes with the worst record in baseball will wind up with the #1 pick and probably Bryce Harper. So what teams have a realistic chance to land Harper? Let's take a look at the five worst teams in baseball, all of whom should be salivating over Harper, and how many games back they are from the coveted worst record in baseball.

The Race for Bryce Harper, Week One

1. Washington Nationals

-A few weeks back, I figured that the Nationals had the first pick all wrapped up. But since the calendar hit August, the Nationals are 11-4 and have played themselves out of '62 Mets territory. It would be great for DC if the Nationals keep playing well, but if they lose out on the first pick, then 2009 would be even more of a waste.

2. Kansas City Royals, 3.5 GB

-Since starting off the season at 12-10, the Royals played absolutely miserable baseball. The Royals record since May 1st sits at a pathetic 34-61, even with the amazing Zack Greinke. If the Royals continue to play this badly, then it's not inconceivable to think that they could land the top pick...probably at the expense of GM Dayton Moore and manager Trey Hillman.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates, 4 GB

-For the first three months of the season, the Pirates were actually playing decent baseball. However, management decided to purge the organization to acquire young talent so most of the Pirates talented players with experience were dealt elsewhere. As a result, the Pirates will play out the rest of the season with lots of young players, which could put them in a great position to land the top pick. Young players, no matter how talented they are, will go through ups and downs in the majors, especially in the beginning. This could bode well for the Pirates chances to land Harper.

4. Baltimore Orioles, 5.5 GB

-Orioles fans will tell you that the 2009 season has been vital for the Orioles rebuilding process. Adam Jones has established himself as a future star, Nolan Reimold has been productive, and Matt Wieters, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman, and Brian Matusz have all reached the majors. But could you imagine how excited Baltimore would be if they landed the 2010 top pick? I think the O's have too much talent here to land the top spot, but their struggles of late have put them in position to at least think about it.

5. San Diego Padres, 5.5 GB

-If the Padres want to land the #1 overall pick, they need to start playing like they did in June and July. Outside of those two months, the Padres are just one game under .500. However, during June and July, the Padres are a staggering 20 games under .500. If the Padres can play that badly over the remainder of the season, then they have a very realistic chance to land Harper.

What team do you think will land Harper?

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Random Afternoon Video: Worst First Pitch I Have Ever Seen

Is this worse than BaBaBooey's first pitch?




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Vernon Wells: Understanding Ricciardi?

Recently Joe Posnanski, one of the best sportswriters in America, ranked the worst contracts in baseball (the piece is a must read). Not surprisingly, Posnanski ranks Vernon Wells's 7 year/$126 million dollar contract as the worstin baseball today. It's hard to argue with that logic considering that Wells has been one of the least valuable players in the American League this season and is still owed more than $80 million bucks. Yikes.

Here's what Posnanski writes about the Wells contract:

And it never made sense. Ever. Wells had a very good year in 2003 (and he was a very good fielder then), a couple of OK years, a good year in 2006 at age 27. But he never got on base much, and he was inconsistent, and … then the Blue Jays gave him this hysterical contract.

I completely agree with Posnanski here. When the deal was signed in 2006, it looked like the Blue Jays were dramatically overpaying for a player who was not the franchise player they believed he was. Essentially, the Blue Jays paid Vernon Wells to be the man, but the reality is that Vernon Wells was nothing more than a very good player, even in his prime.

I'm sure many Jays fans are asking now is why. Why did JP Ricciardi believe that signing Vernon Wells to such a big contract was a good move for the franchise?

I'm sure many Jays fans are asking now is how. How the hell did this contract happen?

Well after some research, I decided to dive into the world of the JP Ricciardi, circa 2006, to discover why and how this deal made sense for the Blue Jays at the time.

1. Texas

-One idea that people these days always forget about is that the Blue Jays were scared that Vernon Wells was going to leave the Jays at the end of the 2007 season for the Texas Rangers.

Wells went to high school in Arlington, Tex., where he lives. He is close to Texas shortstop Michael Young, and the Rangers' owner, Tom Hicks, has a history of lavish spending. ''Everybody wants him to come back and play here, and he would like to come back and play here,'' Wells Sr. said. ''If Michael Young stays here, they have always wanted to be in the big leagues together, too. The Blue Jays are aware of that.''

Perhaps Ricciardi felt that if he let Wells explore his free agent options after the 2007 season, that there was no way he would return to Toronto. Therefore, he overspent to keep Wells happy and in Toronto.

2. Ted Rogers

-Beginning in 2005, Blue Jays owner Ted Rogers gave his baseball ops people the go ahead to increase the payroll. Rogers did not believe that the Blue Jays could compete with the Yankees and Red Sox at the current payroll level, thus he authorized the payroll increase. Because of the payroll increase, the Blue Jays were able to go out and sign AJ Burnett, BJ Ryan, Troy Glaus, and eventually re-sign Vernon Wells.

"Ted is the type of owner who has been supportive of everything we've recommended so far," said Jays president Godfrey. "He has never shut the door. We made the point very early on that we had a few years to re-adjust our thinking and to dismantle.

"When we got to point where we were in a position to contend for a playoff spot, we knew more money would be there."

They just weren't certain how much.

This is the big change Rogers has made in his short time as owner. Whether it was his own determination to spend more (some say his friends goaded him into it), or a business decision, the fact is, Rogers is spending more.

Without the go ahead to spend more, I doubt the Jays could have re-signed Wells. From Ricciardi's perspective, he probably did not know how long the payroll increase was going to least for, therefore, he decided to be aggressive with the opportunity to spend.

3. Little man complex

-There was this idea around baseball at the time that the Blue Jays would spend some money, but they would never be close to the Yankees and Red Sox, both of whom can outspend the Blue Jays. Signing Vernon Wells to a lucrative extension was supposed to be a signal to the Red Sox, the Yankees, and the rest of baseball that the Blue Jays could and would compete with the best (on the field and financially) and that they were willing to spend to keep their own.

"It sends a message to baseball, it sends a message to the other players around the league, that this team is willing to do what it takes to get better," Wells said.

4. Gil Meche and Ted Lilly

-Before signing Vernon Wells to the huge extension, Ricciardi went after two of the best free agent pitchers on the market-and missed out on both. Ted Lilly refused to re-sign with the Blue Jays and instead bolted for the Chicago Cubs and Gil Meche accepted a lucrative five year deal from the Kansas City Royals.

"We tried to get Lilly and Meche because we thought they could make our club better," Ricciardi said. "Now we have to go in a different direction, but it doesn't mean we have to trade Vernon Wells to do that.

"We're not in a panic mode. If people think we're up here pulling our hair out and taking cyanide pills because we didn't get who we wanted, that's not the case. This is just a part of the game you go through."

Perhaps Ricciardi did panic. Perhaps he felt that he needed to make a big splash after missing out on his two main targets of the offseason. In addition, Ricciardi was unable to upgrade the pitching staff through free agency, so instead, he decided to "stabilize" the offense by giving Vernon Wells a huge extension.

So there you have it. There's no doubt that you still think this deal is stupid. There is no doubt that there is a growing majority that believe Ricciardi should be fired solely because of this contract. But now, hopefully, we all can understand why Blue Jays GM JP Ricciardi decided to give Vernon Wells a 7 year/$126 million dollar deal.

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Free Agent at the End of the Season: Jim Thome

Jim Thome is one of the most interesting free agent cases out there this season. At 38 years old, Thome is still a very productive hitter and remains one of the top power threats in the American League with 20 home runs this season. There is no doubt that Thome can still be a productive force in the middle of any lineup. However, how much will his age and inability to field hinder his market this offseason? Let's take a look:

The Case for Thome

1. The man can hit
-Aside from his injury plagued 2005 season, Jim Thome has not hit less than 30 home runs since 1995. Thome cannot be counted on for 45-50 homers like he was in the past, but around 30 home runs a year should be very manageable. And while Thome might not come near his lifetime average OBP of .405, he can still be relied on to draw a good amount of walks with a solid .370-.380 OBP. That consistency is quite remarkable. Whatever team signs Thome should know one thing, the man can produce with the stick and drive in runs.

The Case against Thome

1. He can't play the field
-Thome has not played the field since 2005 and should not be considered anything more than a full time DH at this point in his career. He needs to remain in the American League and offers very little flexibility.

2. Age
-Next season, Thome will turn 40 years old. Even though he's still productive at this stage in his career, in my opinion, it's impossible to give Thome anything more than a one or two year contract. Also, at what point will Thome's numbers take a nosedive? Power hitters generally don't age well. Maybe Thome is the exception.

3. Strikeouts
-This is one area where Thome's consistency is not beneficial. With the exception of his injury plagued 2005 season, Thome has ranked in the top ten in strikeouts in every season since 1995. As long as Thome hits for enough power, the strikeouts are something that the team will have to live with.

Competition

Thome offers something unique in the upcoming market: a power hitter, who will not require a long term commitment. The only two guys out there, who I see as competition for Thome are Carlos Delgado and maybe Jason Giambi. For my money, I'd go with Thome.

Predicition

1 year/$6 million

Here are some comparable contracts:
-Jason Giambi (1 year/$4 million)
-Pat Burrell (2 years/$16 million)

As long as Thome continues to produce this season, I see no reason why he shouldn't get paid the same amount as Burrell ($8 million per year). But his age makes me hesitant to give him anything more than one year guaranteed, so the option for 2011 seems like a good idea if Thome is still productive and wants to play.

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Random Afternoon Video: Awkward Moment With Ichiro (EXPLICIT)

I had no idea two rats and Kansas City had anything in common, but wow was that funny.

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The Future of Erik Bedard

It was only two years ago that Erik Bedard was thought of as one of the best pitchers in the American League. Everyone remembers that the Mariners, in an act of desperation, gave up Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, and more to acquire Bedard from the Orioles. The Mariners, and many baseball folks, really believed at the time that Bedard was on the fast track to becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball.

In two seasons with the Mariners, Bedard pitched pretty well, but he could not avoid the injury bug. In 2008, Bedard did not pitch after July 4th. And yesterday the Mariners announced that Bedard was to undergo shoulder surgery and probably will miss the remainder of the season.

Now, Erik Bedard's future is cloudy. Bedard will be a free agent after this season and his value on the open market is somewhat undefined. There is no doubt that Bedard can pitch very effectively, but what no one knows is whether or not he can stay healthy for a full season. this offseason should have been the one where Bedard cashed in on his tremendous ability, but at this point, Bedard would be very lucky to get a major commitment from a team because of the significant risk of injury.

With that said, I still think that Bedard might be able to do better than a one year contract loaded with incentives if he's able to come back this season and pitch effectively. I know that Bedard returning is probably a longshot at this point, especially with the Mariners fading out of contention, but it certainly could help him down the road financially if he can make a few starts.

But for argument's sake, let's assume that Bedard does not play again in 2009. If I was Bedard's agent, I would look at the contract that the Red Sox gave an aging John Smoltz last offseason. Even though Smoltz missed a majority of the season because of major shoulder surgery and was over 40 years old, he was still able to get $5.5 million guaranteed from the Red Sox in addition to incentives and bonuses that would make the contract exceed $10 million.

In a logical world, shouldn't Erik Bedard, at age 30, be able to top that $5 million dollar guarantee? Absolutely.

In a logical world, shouldn't Erik Bedard, who had a 2.82 ERA in 15 starts this season, be able to top the additional $5 million in bonuses? Absolutely.

So while Bedard has to be frustrated and disappointed by all of his injuries, his next contract still should be a lucrative one year deal. If all goes well, then Bedard could position himself beautifully for a huge contract after 2010.

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The Mike Pelfrey Contract

I saw this interesting nugget a few days back and simply forgot to post it. As some of you may remember, the Mets drafted Mike Pelfrey with their 9th overall selection in 2005 and then signed him to a four year major league contract worth more than $5.3 million in guaranteed money.

But as the 2009 season comes to close, I wondered what would happen with Pelfrey because his contract expired, but he did not have enough service time to become a free agent or qualify for arbitration.

The answer: in 2010 Pelfrey will actually get a pay cut. As Adam Rubin noted:

"Mike Pelfrey's contract calls for him to make $3 million this season, but because that original deal upon being drafted expires and he falls short of the service time required to qualify for arbitration, that salary would drop to $500,000 in 2010."

I'm sure the Mets feel much more comfortable paying Pelfrey $500,000 next year considering how mediocre he's been so far in 2009.

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