Will the Yankees Resign Johnny Damon?

For a majority of the regular season, Damon was viewed as the guy the Yankees would opt to keep heading into 2010. Even with Damon's limited defensive ability, he still offered more flexibility than Hideki Matsui moving forward. But now there are murmurs that Damon will not be back with the Yankees in 2010:

"Now that the Yankees seem to have built a team that can get an annual invite to the ALCS, the 35-year-old Damon, whose contract expires at the end of this playoff run, might not get much use out of it. He is a veteran on a team that miraculously squeezed production from a group of aging players - some of them coming off injuries, such as Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Hideki Matsui. Damon's services might not be in demand in the Bronx next year."

I know Damon struggled pretty badly in the ALDS, but people need to remember just how good Damon was for the Yankees this season. Damon was the perfect catalyst behind Derek Jeter this season and is a large reason why the Yankees offense was so potent. Even at 35, Damon still hit .282 with 24 Yankee Stadium aided home runs, 82 RBI, and 107 runs scored.

There are two scenarios where I could see the Yankees deciding to part ways with Damon:

1. The Yankees resign Hideki Matsui as the DH in 2010
-There's no way the Yankees will bring back both Matsui and Damon in 2010....the Yankees need to get younger moving forward.

2. The Yankees try to sign Jason Bay or Matt Holliday this winter
-If the Yankees pass on both Matsui and Damon, then all of a sudden the Yankees can become players for either Bay or Holliday. The Yankees would have a glaring need in left field and lots of payroll to spend. It might make sense for the Yankees to go after a big name free agent OF this offseason because next year's free agent OF class is weak outside of Carl Crawford.

I still think the Yankees and Damon will come to terms on a one year deal for 2010. The Yankees should not let Damon's prolonged slump (Sept. into October) prevent them from keeping one of their primary offensive players. If anything, the Yankees should let Matsui go, sign Damon with the expectation that he will DH more in 2010, and go after Matt Holliday or Jason Bay.

Thoughts?

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Four Under the Radar Free Agents with Money to Make in the Championship Series

A little more than a week ago, I took a glance at what free agents had significant money to make this postseason. Many of the names on the list are now out of the playoffs and I couldn't help but feel as though the lesser known free agents were being ignored.

So as we gear up for the Championship Series tonight, I've highlighted four under the radar free agents that can increase their earning potential with a good Championship Series. So without further ado:

4. Darren Oliver

-Outside of closer Brian Fuentes, Darren Oliver is the only lefty the Angels will carry in the bullpen. That means it will be Oliver's primary responsibility to shut down the Yankees potent left handed bats (Matsui, Damon, Cano) in the late innings. In addition, the Yankees have a number of potent switch hitters(Teixeira, Posada, Swisher), so Oliver will need to be able to get right handed hitters out as well.

Even though Oliver will be a type A free agent, I doubt the Angels will offer him arbitration ($3.6 million this year), so would it be out of the question for the 40 year old Oliver to get another multi year deal?

3. Chan Ho Park

-Now that Park is back on the playoff roster, I'm sure the Phillies will be relying on him heavily to get big outs down the stretch. Park's statistics as a relief pitcher this season are very impressive (2.52 ERA in 38 games) especially against right handed hitters (1.16 ERA). The odds are high that Park will have to face the Dodgers two best right handed batters in the series: Matt Kemp and Manny Ramirez. The opportunity for Park to showcase his relief talent should be there.

2. Ronnie Belliard

-Belliard has revitalized his career over the past few months in LA. Belliard went from being a really, really unproductive player with the Nationals to becoming the starting second baseman for the Dodgers in the playoffs over all star Orlando Hudson. If Belliard produces in the NLCS, then he could set himself up for a nice contract especially with his Type B free agent status. Does anyone actually see Belliard starting for a team at second in 2010?

1. Vincente Padilla

-Padilla has been so good since coming to LA that the Dodgers left Jon Garland off the playoff roster. Padilla will get another chance to showcase himself for teams when he pitches against Pedro Martinez in game 2. If he pitches well there, then I'd look for Padilla to possibly make one more start during the NLCS (if need be). I doubt the Dodgers would offer Padilla arbitration, but is it crazy to think that Padilla is a few more good starts away from a multi year deal?


Thoughts?

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Steve Phillips Is Still Clueless About Jonathan Papelbon

First, Steve Phillips told us about the "significant market" for Jonathan Papelbon. Unfortunately Phillips continued to talk more about the Papelbon rumors yesterday (Thanks, Oliver!). My jaw nearly hit the floor when I read this comment from Steve Phillips' chat on ESPN.com:

Oliver (Germany): If there's any truth in the Jonathan Papelbon trade rumours, whocould be a potential fit for the Red Sox. In my opinion this couls only be a playoff contender in need of a great closer with high salary demands (and a lousy closer right now). The Cubs? The White Sox? The Rays?

Steve Phillips(1:05 PM): I think there is a good chance Jonathan Papelbon has thrown his last pitches for the Red Sox. They love Daniel Bard and believe he is the closer of the future. He has great stuff and the Red Sox believe he has the stomach for the role as well. A lot of teams would have interest in Papelbon, including the Cubs, Tigers, White Sox, Rays, possibly the Phillies. He is an elite closer who should bring back a significant return and might allow the Red Sox to plug holes without jumping into the free agent market, as would be their preference.

Okay fine, I understand Phillips reasoning for naming the Cubs, Tigers, and Phillies in the hypothetical Papelbon sweepstakes.....

But the White Sox and the Rays? No chance.

C'mon, Steve. As of right now, the White Sox already have a closer (Bobby Jenks), who like Papelbon, will be getting a substantial raise through arbitration. In fact, there have been murmurs that the White Sox are looking to trade Jenks simply because he's becoming too expensive. If the White Sox are successful in trading Jenks, then Matt Thornton would be next in line to close. Does it make sense for the White Sox to trade Jenks away because of his salary, but then trun around and trade prospects (and maybe more) for Papelbon and the $9 or so million he would make in 2010? Not in my eyes.

Astonishingly, Phillips mentions the Rays as a possible contender for Papelbon. Is he kidding? First of all, why would the Red Sox trade Papelbon to a contending team within their own division that they have to play 19 times a season? Hell no.

In addition, does Phillips actually think that the Rays can afford Papelbon and his $8-$10 million dollar salary? As Rays GM Andrew Friedman said last week:

“I think there’s kind of a misnomer out there that we don’t believe in having someone that can lock down a game,” Friedman said Tuesday at Tropicana Field. “It’s just that when we get into our roster construction and allocating of resources, it’s very difficult for us to allocate a huge amount of money for someone who pitches 70 innings a year.”

I dunno where Steve Phillips comes up with this stuff, but then again, he is the guy that acquired Mo Vaughn.

Thoughts?

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Brett Myers' Value Takes Another Hit

Heading into the postseason I thought Brett Myers had a wonderful opportunity to make himself some money. Myers, who is a free agent this offseason, missed lots of time this season because of hip surgery. The playoffs seemed to be a great way for Myers to showcase himself for teams, albeit from the bullpen. The Phillies could not depend on Brad Lidge to close out games and if the Phillies needed a closer, then maybe, just maybe, they would turn to Myers.

However, it doesn't look like Myers will ever get that opportunity. Brad Lidge seems to have found a little bit of his former self in Colorado and with the return of Chan Ho Park, the Phillies elected to keep Myers off the playoff roster:

"Brett Myers said tonight that the Phillies have told him he is not on the NLCS roster.

"I'm (ticked)," he said."

From a financial standpoint, keeping him off the playoff roster is a devastating move for Myers because it prevents Myers from showing teams that he's healthy and productive. If Myers was somehow able to put together a dynamite postseason, then he could have been in line for a multi year contract. However, with the way things stand, it wouldn't surprise me if Myers was forced to settle for a one year pact and test the free agent market again after the 2010 season.

Once Myers does hit the open market this offseason, it'll be fascinating to see if he labels himself as a closer or as a starter. The market for closers is deep in quantity, but not quality, while Myers has not been an effective starting pitcher since 2006. This will be an interesting decision for Myers moving forward...

Thoughts?

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The Market for Jonathan Papelbon

Former Mets GM Steve Phillips chimes in on the possibility of trading Jonathan Papelbon:

"I think if Papelbon is available, and I think he will be, I think there will be a significant market for him and the teams will really step up," he said on WEEI on Tuesday. "When you look at the Bobby Jenkses of the world who might be available via trade, and guys like that ... Papelbon stands out as a difference-maker."

Sure, Papelbon is a difference maker. His performance as the Red Sox closer since 2006 has been phenomenal.

However, I have no idea where Phillips is coming from saying that there will be a significant market for Papelbon. The only teams that would be willing to take on Papelbon and the $9 or so million that he will make in arbitration are teams with high payrolls.

Here is the list of teams with payrolls exceeding $90 million in 2009 and their potential closing situation for 2010:

Cardinals: Ryan Franklin
Braves: ?????
White Sox: Jenks (or Thornton)
Mariners: Aardsma
Astros: ?????
Dodgers: Broxton
Angels: Fuentes
Red Sox: Papelbon
Phillies: Brad Lidge
Tigers: ??????
Cubs: Carlos Marmol (????)
Mets: Francisco Rodriguez
Yankees: Mariano Rivera

So out of 12 teams with $90+ million dollar payrolls, only three of them (maybe the Cubs as well) have uncertain closing situations as we look forward to 2010.

However, the Astros have stated publicly that they are looking to cut payroll in 2010, so I doubt they'd be looking to spend $9 million (plus the prospects) on a closer.

Also, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has stated publicly that the team will have payroll constraints this offseason. Unless they can move some salary around, I doubt the Tigers would look to add Papelbon.

So that leaves us with the Braves and possibly the Cubs. And even the Cubs have limited payroll flexibility this offseason!

The "significant market" that Phillips refers to consists of one team that needs a closer (Braves), two teams that need a closer and have payroll limitations (Tigers and Astros), and one team that might need a closer, but might not be able to pony up for Papelbon (Cubs).

Who knows? Things can chance in the next few weeks. But right now, the significant market Steve Phillips is referring to is shaky at best.

Thoughts?

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Should the Nationals Give Adam Dunn a Contract Extension?

What should the Nationals do with Adam Dunn?

On one hand, many view Dunn as one of the Nationals' best trade chips. Dunn is signed through the 2010 season for $12 million and could be an attractive power option for an American League team. From 2004-2008, Dunn hit 40 home runs in each season and slugged 38 home runs last year with the Nationals. Aside from his power, Dunn is known for his ability to do three things: walk, get on base, and strikeout.

The Nationals were the worst team in baseball this season and it will be years before the team is even close to competing. What's the point in having a premier power hitter for one season if the team is gonna stick anyway. The Nationals can lose with Dunn, so they sure as hell can lose without him. Besides, Dunn is one of the worst fielders in the majors and NEEDS to be in the American league. The free agent market is lacking hitters with Dunn's power ability, which means that the Nationals could get a nice package in return for Dunn.

On the other hand, maybe the Nationals should view Dunn not as a trading chip, but instead as a building block. Dunn is turning 30 years old in November and should have a number of very productive offensive seasons ahead of him. With Dunn on board, the Nationals offense improved in nearly every category and Ryan Zimmerman put together the best season of his young career. In addition, the Nationals have the makings of dynamic offensive core with Dunn, Zimmerman, Willingham, and Nyjer Morgan. Once the pitching gets up to par, watch out, because this offense has the potential to be lethal.

Remember, if the Nationals were to lock up Adam Dunn to an extension, what would the contract terms have to be? The Nationals got a bargain last offseason when they signed Dunn to a 2 year/$20 million dollar contract and there is no way Dunn would settle for anything like that again. Would 5 years/$70 million be reasonable? How about 4 years/$56 million? Would the Nationals feel comfortable committing four-five years to a defensive liability?

What do you think the Nationals should do?

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The Logic of Tim Hudson?

Looks like the free agent market is about to add another big name pitcher-Tim Hudson:

"Barring a last-minute, knockout offer from the Braves, right-hander Tim Hudson plans to become a free agent, according to major-league sources.

Hudson's contract with the Braves includes a $12 million mutual option for 2010. If Hudson declined his end of the deal, he would be free to negotiate with any team."

All along we have been led to believe that Hudson loved Atlanta and was wanted to stay there. But it seems that this decision is purely business. There are a few reasons why Hudson would choose to opt out:

1. Less competition on the market
-As Rosenthal notes, the only true top flight starting pitcher on the market is John Lackey, who has injury concerns of his own. If Hudson became a free agent at the end of next season, he would have been competing with Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, and Javier Vazquez. That's quite an impressive list. From that perspective, Hudson made a wise choice to opt out this year.

2. Money
-Obviously if Hudson opted out his contract, then he believes that he is due for a big time pay raise from the 1 year/$12 million dollar pact he had with Atlanta. The early predictions seem to predict that Hudson will indeed be handsomely paid:

-Circling the Bases: 4 years/$50 million
-fangraphs: "A three or four year deal at around $10 million per season"

But my question to the baseball world is this: why? Why is Hudson entitled to such a big contract? I understand that Hudson has fantastic career numbers and in his prime he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. But right now, Hudson is a 34 year old former ace, who has not completed a full season since 2007 and is coming off Tommy John surgery. Is this a pitcher that you would want to commit 3-4 year too?

Yes, Hudson's velocity and movement were impressive during his seven starts this season with the Braves, but should seven starts translate into a big money deal for Hudson? That's quite a risk to take.

And finally, let's return to the free agent market. For the life of me, I cannot understand how a 34 year old Hudson gets 3-4 years/$10 mil annually when 30 year old Erik Bedard, an injury prone ace, is likely to be forced to take a one year deal. Does that make any sense? Hudson is the older pitcher. Hudson is the one coming off Tommy John. If anything, Bedard is less of a risk than Hudson and he has the makeup (if healthy, of course) to be an ace for years to come.

Thoughts on Tim Hudson?

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