Sabtu, 14 November 2009

What the Hell Were You Thinking? Carlos Guillen Edition

*Over the next couple of weeks, Jorge Says No! will take an in depth look at some of the worst contracts in baseball. We'll evaluate why the player was signed, what went wrong, and future implications of the contract. Behind every bone head decision, there has to be a reason for it...right?*

Why Re-Sign Guillen: How did Carlos Guillen get a 4 year/$48 million dollar contract from the Tigers? The answer: good timing and lots of luck. Guillen put together the best offensive season of any AL shortstop in 2006 by hitting 19 home runs, driving in 85, hitting .320, and scoring 102 runs. Guillen led all shortstops in OPS in 2006 and seemed to be a player on the rise.

At the same time, the Tigers were coming off a surprise run to the World Series and looked to lock up their core players long term. The Tigers identified Guillen as a core player and wanted to sign him to an extension before he could become a free agent after the season. With all those things in mind, the Tigers ultimately decided to make Guillen one of the highest paid shortstops in baseball and banked on him continuing to be a productive force at the dish.

As GM Dave Dombroski stated:
"We've very thrilled to reach this agreement," president/CEO/general manager Dave Dombrowski said. "He's one of our core players who has done so much for us, not only on the field but off the field. We're very pleased to have done this."

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"We're very pleased to get this done," Dombrowski said. "It's something both sides have worked hard to get done. There's been a lot of compromises on both sides, for Carlos to stay part of the organization and for us to get him to remain. So we're absolutely thrilled."
What Went Wrong: Injuries, injuries, injuries. Guillen was actually a very productive player for the Tigers in 2007, but his 2008 and 2009 seasons have been cut short by injuries and he has failed to be the consistent, middle of the order hitter the Tigers needed.

In addition, Guillen can no longer play shortstop because of concerns about his agility and mobility. The Tigers have shifted Guillen from left field to first base to third base in the hopes of finding a suitable position for Guillen to play. For now, it looks like Guillen will be relegated to playing left field and being one of the Tigers primary DHs.

Future Implications: The Tigers are strapped financially this offseason as they have six or seven bad contracts on the books. Guillen's contract does not make matters any easier and restricts the Tigers payroll flexibility this winter. As a result of all these bad contracts, the Tigers might look to move Edwin Jackson and/or Curtis Granderson this winter. If the Tigers could find a taker for Guillen and the $20+ million owed to him over the next two years, I'm sure they would jump at the offer in heartbeat.

Lesson Learned: Injuries suck. There is no way to prevent them, but in the case of Guillen, there were warning signs from the start. Guillen missed significant time in 2003 and 2005 because of injuries, so does it surprise anyone to see that Guillen has dealt with his fair share of injuries over the past two seasons and that he is no longer able to play shortstop? I think not.

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Market Analysis: The Mariners, Jack Wilson, and Freddy Sanchez

The Mariners and Jack Wilson finally came to terms on a new contract yesterday:
The 31-year-old defensive whiz signed a $10 million, two-year contract with the Mariners. According to terms obtained by The Associated Press, Wilson gets $5 million in each of the next two seasons and can earn $250,000 a year in performance bonuses: $50,000 for 450 plate appearances, and $100,000 each for 500 and 550 plate appearances.

Seattle had an $8.4 million option with a $600,000 buyout under the contract Wilson had agreed to with the Pirates before the 2006 season.

The Mariners had inherited that contract from Pittsburgh on July 29, when they traded for the 31-year-old Wilson plus pitcher Ian Snell, for infielder Ronny Cedeno, catcher Jeff Clement and three minor league pitchers.

"I'm really, really excited to be back in Seattle. It's such a great chance to win and compete," Wilson said, remembering his 8 1/2 losing seasons with the Pirates.
Overall, it's hard not to like this move for the Mariners even though $5 million annually is a little steep for my blood right now. It remains to be seen just how much Wilson can make an impact with the bat, but where it counts for the Mariners is with the glove. If he can provide the Mariners with top notch defense at short, then there is no question he will be worth $5 million annually. It depends on how good Wilson's defense is over the next two seasons, how productive he is with the bat, and most importantly, Wilson's health.

I'm interested to see the impact of Jack Wilson's deal moving forward this offseason. You can make the case that the Mariners now have three of the best defensive players in baseball (Wilson, Gutirrez, and Ichiro), which is important because the Mariners play in the spacious and pitcher friendly, Safeco Field. When you take those two things into account, the Mariners could become the desired landing spot for free agent pitchers this winter. the only thing that can make this situation any more appealing to free agent pitchers is if the Mariners add some impact bats in their lineup, which I'm sure they will given how much money they have to spend this summer.

It's fascinating to note that the Mariners and Wilson (2 years/$10 million) drew up almost the identical contract to the one that Freddy Sanchez signed with the Giants last week (2 years/$12 million). Both players were in similar situations. Both guys were:
  • acquired via trade at the deadline
  • missed time in the second half because of injuries
  • had expensive options for 2010 that were not likely to be picked up, but both wanted to stay with their respective teams
Interestingly enough, the Giants and Mariners were in a similar situation as well. Both teams:
  • gave up promising prospects at the deadline (for Wilson and Sanchez, respectively)
  • had no short term options internally to replace the player if they did not come to terms
These deals look like amicable solutions for both sides. The Mariners and Giants respectively might have given Wilson and Sanchez a little extra annually, but that was a much better scenario for the team then any of the alternatives: pick up the expensive 2010 option or let the player test the free agent market. And as for Sanchez and Wilson, they signed contracts that probably earned them a little more than they would have gotten on the free agent market and they get to stay put for another two years.

Sounds like a win-win to me.

Thoughts?

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Jumat, 13 November 2009

The Trade Market Does Not Favor the Reds

Just a few months after acquiring Scott Rolen and the $11 million owed to him in 2010, the Reds are looking to cut costs and move some of their high priced talent.

"The Reds are not cutting payroll, but they are looking to free up dollars and create flexibility for other moves.

Thus, everyone on their roster is available except first baseman Joey Votto, outfielder Jay Bruce and third baseman Scott Rolen, according to one source with knowledge of the club's thinking.

The team's highest-priced players — closer Francisco Cordero, second baseman Brandon Phillips and right-handers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo — all are in play."

However, herein lies the big problem for the Reds: the high priced players they'd be looking to deal will have a tough time generating serious interest on the trade market. Case in point:

Francisco Cordero: Sure Cordero put up great numbers in 2009 and would be a very useful player for so many contending teams, but it's an impossible task trying to find a taker for Cordero's 2 year/$25 million dollar contract in this economy. Also, there are about seven closers on the free agent market this winter and a handful of others, who are cheaper and more realistic options than Cordero to be traded.

Brandon Phillips: Phillips is probably the Reds most tradeable asset because he is a productive second baseman and is only owed $6.75 million in 2010. However, with Felipe Lopez and Orlando Hudson on the free agent market and Luis Castillo and Dan Uggla available on the trade market; the Reds might have a tough time getting a strong package in return for Phillips. The Reds best chance to maximize Phillips' value would be if a team wants to move Phillips to shortstop because the market for shortstops this winter is painfully weak outside of Marco Scutaro.

Aaron Harang/Bronson Arroyo: The Reds are in a tough spot here with these two pitchers because both guys clearly are not top of the rotation starters at this point, but both guys are getting paid like aces. The Reds have more than $23 million committed to these two pitchers in 2010, which makes both of them virtually unmovable unless:

1. The Reds take a back another bad contract in return
2. The Reds package Arroyo/Harang with a valuable commodity like Brandon Phillips

The problem with the second option is the Reds probably would not receive much value in return aside from salary relief. I'd like to think that the Reds would want more than just payroll flexibility if they are going to move Phillips.

As a small market club looking to cut costs/redistribute their resources, the Reds are going to have a rough time this winter because of baseball's economic climate.

Thoughts?

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What the Hell Were You Thinking? Gary Matthews Jr. Edition

*Over the next couple of weeks, Jorge Says No! will take an in depth look at some of the worst contracts in baseball. We'll evaluate why the player was signed, what went wrong, and future implications of the contract. Behind every bone head decision, there has to be a reason for it...right?*

Why Sign Matthews Jr: The Angels were looking to make a big splash on the free agent market by adding a productive hitter and a quality defensive outfielder. With those criteria in mind, the Angels targeted Gary Matthews Jr., a career journeyman who was coming off a career season with the Rangers. Matthews was always known for his defensive prowess in the outfield, but in 2006, Matthews exploded at the dish by hitting .313 with 19 home runs, 44 doubles, and 102 runs scored. The Angels viewed the 32 year old Matthews as one of the best outfielders on the free agent market and prepared to sign him to a huge contract.

As GM Bill Stoneman noted at the time:
"One of our objectives during this off-season was to improve ourselves in center field," said Stoneman. "We believe Gary is a great fit for this ballclub. In addition to his outstanding play in center field, he has the versatility to leadoff or hit deeper in the batting order."
What Went Wrong: This signing seemed doomed from the start. During his first spring training with the Angels, Matthews was linked in a HGH sting that led to Matthews Jr. being named in the Mitchell Report. During his first season with the Angels, Matthews played a solid center field (3.6 UZR) and hit for some power (19 home runs), but was generally viewed as a disappointment because the rest of his offensive numbers dipped. The Angels were not satisfied with Matthews production so the following offseason, the Angels went out and signed all star Torii Hunter to a 5 year/$90 million dollar contract even though Matthews Jr. was still under contract for the next 4 years.

For the past two seasons, Matthews has been the most expensive fourth outfielder on the planet (outside of Juan Pierre) and he has not been productive off the bench. His offense has been on the steady decline as his playing time has waned and even worse, Matthews defense has taken the plunge and he now ranks as one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball (-13.7 UZR in 2008; -24.6 UZR in 2009). To put things in perspective, fangraphs notes that Matthews has been worth negative dollars in 2008 and 2009.

Future Implications: The impact of the Gary Matthews Jr. signing is a topic that can be debated for years. On one hand, the Angels were still able to sign big name free agents like Torii Hunter while Matthews was under contract, but on the other hand, the Angels watched guys like Mark Teixiera and Francisco Rodriguez walk and they were unable to make a big push to sign any major free agents last season. Did Matthews Jr.'s contract prevent the Angels from making a big splash? Who knows.

Looking forward, Matthews Jr. wants out of Anaheim. His tenure with the Angels has been filled with frustration and it would be best for him if the Angels were able to deal him. However, that's easier said than done. Matthews is still owed 2 years/$23 million on his contract and I doubt there are teams that are eager to pick up his salary. The Angels could be stuck a very expensive and probably unhappy Matthews in 2010.

Lesson Learned: Be very cautious when signing players after career years. This contract looked absurd at the time and now it looks even more absurd. Matthews capitalized on one good season and the Angels took the bait. As a result, the Angels are paying the price for that decision now.

Thoughts?

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Should the Pirates Trade Ryan Doumit?

After the Pirates traded Nate McLouth last spring, I figured the Pirates would be building around Ryan Doumit and his team friendly contract. Well, maybe not:
"Pirates switch hitter Ryan Doumit drew interest from several teams during this week's general managers' meetings in Chicago, multiple Major League sources said Thursday.

The sources believe Pittsburgh would not hesitate to move Doumit, 28, in the right deal. The Pirates have dealt a number of veteran players since Neal Huntington took over as general manager at the end of the 2007 season.

Doumit batted .250 with 10 home runs and 38 RBIs in an injury-shortened 2009 season. But his appeal is twofold: Doumit has the potential to hit for power, as evidenced by his .858 OPS in 2008, and he has big-league experience as a catcher, first baseman and right fielder.

There is a range of opinion within the industry as to which position suits him best. While he's not considered a superb defender anywhere on the diamond, his versatility could appeal to teams that need to add a power bat — but aren't entirely sure where."
Tough call for the Pirates here.

On one hand, the free agent market for catchers is horribly weak this offseason, so the Pirates could conceivably capitalize on a barren market and get a nice package in return for Doumit. There could be a number of teams interested in Doumit- the Mets, Giants, Blue Jays, Rays, Royals, Brewers, and more could have some interest in the Pirates backstop. The Pirates might be able to get back some upper echelon prospects in return and hopefully help the Pirates move forward with their rebuilding process.

However, the Pirates have to wonder if they would be selling low on Doumit. Here is a guy, who is just a year removed from hitting .318 with 15 HR and 71 RBI. Doumit was one of the best hitting catchers in the NL in 2008, but he missed a large chunk of the 2009 seasons because of injuries. Doumit seems to be one of the few young catchers out there with a nice upside at the dish and he certainly did not have one of his better seasons in 2009.

In addition, Doumit's contract makes him a very valuable commodity to the Pirates because he is under team control for the next four years (including two team options) at a very reasonable rate ($23-$24 million total). He is one of the few players that the Pirates can build around in the future and trading him would be another blow for the fan base, who watched the Pirates' roster get purged last summer.

My advice: unless the Pirates are completely overwhelmed by an offer, they should hold onto Doumit.

Should the Pirates look to trade Doumit? Let us know in the comments.

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Kamis, 12 November 2009

Who Has More Value: Jason Bay or Matt Hollday?

I meant to touch on this nugget last week, but for some reason I forgot about it. In this chat on WEEI, former Red Sox GM Dan Duquette is asked a (somewhat) simple question and gives a rather startling response:
12:19 [Comment From JeremyJeremy: ]
Who would value more, Jason Bay or Matt Holliday?
(My interpretation: As a GM, who would you value more, Jason Bay or Matt Holliday?

Dan Duquette:
Jason Bay performed in both the NL and AL, and Matt Holliday has only established that he can perform in the NL. With those two going into the market probably Bay will do a little bit better than Holliday because he performed in both leagues.
Does that logic make any sense at all? Outside of Jason Bay's agent, it's accepted throughout the baseball community that Matt Holliday is the superior player and in turn, the best free agent on the free agent market.

Should teams be willing to pay more for Jason Bay because he played in a great situation in Boston, was surrounded by potent hitters for two years, and not surprisingly, put up some of the best numbers of his career? I think not. If you compare the AL experiences of Bay and Holliday, you'll clearly see that Bay was in a great lineup with other great hitters around him while Holliday was stuck on a terrible team, in a terrible ballpark, with very little offensive talent around him.

Duquette's logic in stating that Bay will do better than Holliday because of his performance in the AL is laughable. For starters, Matt Holliday only played three months in Oakland and yes, while he did struggle during his tenure with the A's, there are plenty of reasons why this was the case:

1. Holliday was adjusting to a new league
2. Holliday was adjusting to a new team
3. Holliday was surrounded by one of the worst lineups in baseball
4. Holliday was playing in one of the worst hitters parks in baseball

I seriously doubt that GMs around baseball will rank Bay above Holliday because Matt Holliday struggled for a few months during his first stint in the American League. If anything, Holliday's struggles with the A's are a good reason for AL teams to proceed with caution when pursuing Holliday, but that's not a valid reason to rank Bay above Holliday.

I'm sure given this economic climate there will be teams out there who pursue Bay instead of Holliday simply because of the cost. But if you ask any of those GMs if they would prefer Holliday or Bay, I guarantee a majority would say Holliday regardless of how he performed during his brief stay with the Athletics.

Valuing Bay over Holliday solely on their respective experiences in the AL is ludicrous....Matt Holliday's contract will exceed Jason Bay's.

Thoughts?

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